Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Fantasy Basketball: Finding DFS Value at FanDuel



Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) basketball players are always looking for value. At least the ones that take down the big cash tournament prizes are. When you only have $60,000 dollars to spread out amongst nine players on a roster it’s an absolute must to get the most value from every player on your roster.

You can talk about minutes, match-ups, usage and anything else you like but it all boils down to this; if you aren’t getting a minimum of 5 points per $1000 dollars of salary spent you don’t stand a chance of winning a GPP tournament. To actually win one of those monsters and take home the big prize you’ll need closer to 6 points per $1000 dollars spent.

I know there are plenty that advocate NOT playing these monsters and opt instead for easier tournaments like Double Ups and 50/50’s and while those are all great things to take part in Fantasy Sports is all about winning whatever league you are playing…or at least it was. In a way they are correct; the odds of you winning one of those monsters are very slim but they can be done.

So how do we go about finding this value?

As I said before you’ll need at least the minimum of 5 Fantasy Points per $1000 dollars spent so let’s use last night’s winning lineup from the single entry 40K NBA Dribbler tournament as an example.

PG: Jeff Teague $7,400   41.9

PG: George Hill $6,500   40.4

SG: Kent Bazemore $5,000 27.7

SG: Marco Bellinelli $3,900  22.7

SF: Paul George $8,500     38.3

SF: Andrew Wiggins $6,900 44

PF: Paul Millsap $8,100  42

PF: Draymond Green $7,600 42.5

C: Jahlil Okafor $5,900  43.5

That was a great lineup but did you notice what was missing? The big priced names such as Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Boogie Cousins and Paul George were all noticeably absent from the winning lineup. Isn’t that something?

It’s time to introduce floor and ceiling and how this relates to getting maximum value.

Let’s use Jahlil Okafor as an example. His lowest point total (floor) at FanDuel thus far this season is 22.65 and his highest (ceiling) after last night is 43.5. If we use our 5 point minimum Okafor would have to get 29.5 FanDuel points to make value or about 7 points more than his floor and 1 point more than his season average of 28.37.

Now let’s look at the top choice Andre Drummond. Drummond last night cost you $9,300 meaning you would need to have him score the minimum of 46.50 FanDuel points for him to break even. Last night he had 40.5 points. His floor this season is 35.7 and his ceiling is 67.1 for an average of 50.65 points per game.

I lost you didn’t I?

If Okafor lays a 22 point clunker it won’t hurt as much as if Drummond lays a 35 point clunker and here’s why; the $3,400 I save in salary by opting for Okafor can now be used to pay up for two or even three players in the hopes of not only making up the points lost but hopefully exceeding the overall 5 point minimum per $1000 dollars spent. I think that’s much easier than punting away a position with a minimum priced player in hopes that he goes off that night. Don’t you?

Easy as pie, right?

Not exactly because it doesn’t always work out the way it did last night. As their high ceilings and salaries indicate players like Drummond, Curry and the like are capable of HUGE games and there are times when paying up for them is a good thing. It depends on their match-ups and situations. Last night Drummond was playing the second game of a back to back after KILLING Portland on Sunday night plus the Golden State front-court is one of the best defensive units in the NBA so his 40 point “clunker” was sort of expected. Okafor played his normal 30 plus minutes but benefited from his teammate Nerlens Noel being injured and wound up with a HUGE night. Keep that in mind the next time Philly plays without Noel.

Finding value is a great thing and it’s a LOT of fun to try and find those gems but just remember you MUST get at least 5 points per salary dollar spent to even cash and closer to 6 points per dollar spent in order to win a huge NBA DFS Fantasy Basketball Tournament at FanDuel.

It’s a daunting task but one a real Fantasy Basketball owner not only welcomes but looks forward to.

Good luck playing DFS Fantasy Basketball Fantasy Hoops owner!